As im sure we can tell, its getting pretty hot outside and while my blood was boiling out in the sun I thought up a question.
As the earth gets hotter during the summer, does the winter also get warmer, or does the weather get more extreme. For instance. Winter = Way to cold, Summer = Way to hot.
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I can see where you’re coming from with this, the answer may be a little bit more involved than you were expecting. Here goes…
As you know, winter in the northern hemisphere is summer in the southern hemisphere and visa versa. Whilst one place is warming another is cooling and so there’s a balance. As a result the average global temperature is virtually the same throughout the whole year. The difference between the warmest month (August) and the coldest month (March) is just 0.07°C.
On a global scale temperatures are rising by the same amount throughout the year such that winter and summer have warmed equally.
Regional variations connected with proximity to oceans, altitudes, ground cover, latitude etc cause localised seasonal variations and in some places the winters have warmed more than the summers and in other places the opposite is true. It’s got a lot to do with oceanic modulation, how reflective the surrounding land is (albedo) and the time of year that the angle of incidence of incoming sunlight is the greatest.
A consequence of global warming is that it disrupts the world’s weather patterns. Hardly surprising given that all the world’s weather is driven by heat. This disruption manifests itself in many ways but there are some rough rules of thumb that can be applied.
The wet places are getting wetter whilst the dry places are getting drier, precipitation overall is increasing, the intensity and frequency of just about all adverse weather events is increasing, the further north from the Antarctic Circle you go the more the temperature has risen.
You mentioned the point about winters getting colder – this is an interesting point. Whilst the answer is that they’re not getting colder on a global scale there is emerging evidence that unusual winters in the mid to high northerly latitudes may become more frequent.
You’ll recall that the last two winters were particularly harsh in parts of Europe and North America but whilst this was going on, the places that would normally have been very cold, such as Greenland, the Arctic, Siberia etc were exceptionally warm by their standards.
What had effectively happened is that the heat from the normally mild parts of Canada, America and Europe had been displaced by very cold air, the milder air had moved off and warmed up those places that would normally be very cold.
These unusual conditions were caused by a reversal of weather patterns over the Arctic. Something that had long been predicted would happen as a result of climate change and first manifested itself in 2001. Since then it’s happened on four occasions and if the trend continues then it’s probable that more harsh winters will be in store for parts of Europe and North America.
Prior to this reversal of weather, an event known as an Arctic Dipole Anomaly, severe winters had occurred at roughly 16 year intervals. That regular pattern has now been disrupted and it seems likely that the frequency of harsh winters will increase. But bear in mind, they could double in frequency and that would means we’d still only get one severe winter out of eight.
However, with only 10 years of data and four anomalies to work with, it’s too early to say just what will happen in the future. Also bear in mind, this is localised to the upper half of the northern hemisphere and it’s a redistribution of heat rather than an overall cooling. If you live in Siberia then such events would no doubt be welcomed, if you live in Paris or London or New York then it’s maybe such a good thing.
Referencing your comment about your blood boiling out in the Sun, I would assume you’re somewhere in the eastern half of the US and enduring the effects of the heatwave.
This event is being caused by a combination of factors, the two most important being that hot and humid air is being drawn in from the Gulf of Mexico and feeding into a high pressure system in which it is becoming trapped. The position of the jet stream is blocking the transit of the dome of high pressure and so it’s slow to move on, all the while the clear skies are allowing more heat from the Sun to feed into the dome and so the heat is building.
Probably the most significant role that climate change is playing in the formation of the heatwave isn’t so much that it’s hot per-se, but more that the jet stream is behaving erratically which in turn is allowing the build up of heat.
In recent years there have been many heatwaves that have been significantly compounded by the stalling or disruption to the jet stream. It was this high altitude wind system that played a very important role in the 2003 and 2010 European heatwaves – the two deadliest on record.
The heat which you are experiencing is mostly due to weather and a small amount is due to global warming. On the other hand, depending on where you live, you could experience some very cold weather during the winter or chilly weather during the Summer. Such weather does not mean that global warming is not happening. Scientists use weather data from all over the world to determine temperature trends.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
ScootieWoof
<Actually, the experts say the temp increases at night. Less than a degree so far, if you start measuring about 100 years ago, at the end of the Little Ice Age. Which is odd, as we didn't start burning much oil until the 1940s.>
The reason why the temperature rose rapidly during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century is because the Sun had a dramatic increase in activity. This increase in solar activity is also described as a "Hockey Stick."
http://www.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/sola...
However, the Sun is not responsible for recent warming.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sun...
The winter, on average, gets warmer than the summer. However there are other natural cycles, such as the Arctic Oscillation, that can cause temperature extremes if it is in it's positive or negative phase, as well as changing jet streams and so on.
The answer to your question as far as the science goes is yes, because right now all weather possibilities are covered.
But I do like Trevor's answer specifically the part where AGW is causing the jet stream to behave eradically.
Will depend on where you live. Some areas will experience warmer summers and winters (and vice versa). Others will experience warmer summers and cooler winters (and vice versa). Other areas will only experience more extreme weather conditions ...
Actually, the experts say the temp increases at night. Less than a degree so far, if you start measuring about 100 years ago, at the end of the Little Ice Age. Which is odd, as we didn't start burning much oil until the 1940s.
I hope the summer will be more cold,I can't bear this weather anymore.
What is your question?