Verified answer

Easy, he takes Fl, Va, Nc, Oh(latest polls are actually tied), NV.

Simple. That gets Romney to 272

If you look at the State by State Obama vs Romney polls on the RealClearPolitics website you'll see Obama is winning in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Of all those swing states the only 3 where Romney is currently leading in the polls are Arizona, Missouri and Nevada.

I would not be surprised if Romney couldn't get past 197 delegates - leaving Obama with the other 441.

Actually the polls mean quite a bit, because the polls and electoral votes inevitably start getting closer and closer together as November approaches. This electoral map has things much closer than what your tally indicates:

http://www.270towin.com/

Even NPR says this:

"To get from the 180 McCain base to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Romney needs only to recapture six states that voted twice for George W. Bush before they defected to Obama in 2008. The critical targets are Florida (29), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13) and Indiana (11). To these five he could add either Colorado (9) or Nevada (6) to pass 270."

Women don't like him. Independents don't like him. Young voters don't like him. Latinos don't like him. Mitt needs a massive turnout of the angry white male voter.

Iowa a swing state? pull the other one

Romney will take

Arizona

Florida

Iowa

Missouri

Nevada

NH

NC

Va

Obama will take

Ohio

Pa.

colorado

Didn't you make the same claim about Gore in 2000? How'd THAT work out for ya?